Megadrought in the Southwest: The Coming Water Conflicts
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Chapter 1: Understanding the Current Crisis
The situation has reached a critical point. Since late March, there has been no rainfall; the Rio Grande has completely dried up in Albuquerque.
However, June 15 marked the unofficial start of the monsoon season in the Southwest, and by June 17, the rains arrived, bringing joy to the streets. The downpours continued throughout the season, ending on September 30, leading to heavy rains that caused flash flooding in various regions. Nevertheless, this influx of water revitalized the arid Southwest, with Nevada witnessing record rainfall that added several feet to Lake Mead. Even Death Valley experienced a rare revival.
While these rains provided temporary relief for farmers, they do not address the long-term issues at hand. Prepare yourself: this discussion will be extensive. We will concentrate primarily on the lower-basin states (Arizona, California, and Nevada) and their reliance on the Colorado River, which supports the water needs of many homes and businesses in the region.
Let's revisit the fundamentals: A Brief Overview of the Colorado River Crisis
The last agreement on the distribution of Colorado River water was implemented in 2007, designed to last until 2026, and involved cuts for all seven states and Mexico. However, by 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation recognized that these reductions were insufficient as the drought, which began in 2000, continued. Consequently, the states collaborated on an alternative plan.
This plan, known as the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP), established a tiered system in 2019 aimed at preventing the lakes from reaching "dead pool" status—the point at which a dam can no longer generate electricity due to inadequate water levels. In 2022, the federal government declared a Tier 1 shortage on the Colorado River because of the lakes' low levels. As conditions have deteriorated, a Tier 2 shortage is set to commence on January 1, 2023, resulting in severe water cuts.
The DCP's main feature is to limit water extraction from the Colorado River downstream of Lake Mead. Currently, Lake Mead's water level stands at 1,045 feet above sea level (as of October 1, 2022), which is only about 26% of its total capacity. Experts warn that the dead pool threshold, at 895 feet, could be reached as soon as July 2024.
Lake Powell, situated upstream, is even worse off, with only 23% capacity—its lowest level since being filled in 1963. It currently sits at 3,529 feet above sea level, facing a dead pool scenario when it drops to 3,370 feet. This situation is not merely about shortages; it poses an existential threat to the lakes' ability to supply drinking water and electricity to millions.
In response to these alarming shortages in the lower Colorado River basin, which encompasses Arizona, California, and Nevada, it is inevitable that agriculture—responsible for approximately 80% of the river's water usage—will face substantial reductions. The recently enacted $4 billion climate bill aims to compensate farmers, tribes, and businesses for decreased water usage. As a result, many farmers will leave fields unplanted, exacerbating food price inflation in an already struggling economy.
Drought conditions hinder the growth of grass, forcing cattle ranchers to purchase increasingly expensive feed for their livestock. This has led to a significant decrease in herd sizes, with New Mexico experiencing a 43% decline and Texas a 50% decrease, which in turn drives up beef prices.
While Lake Powell is more relevant to the upper Colorado Basin states (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico), it plays a crucial role in storing water from these areas, as dictated by the 1922 Colorado River Compact. This compact, based on records from the 1890s—when water levels were significantly higher—allocated a percentage of river flow to each state, creating a divide between the Upper and Lower Basins.
Arizona resisted signing the agreement until 1944, the same year Mexico secured a guarantee of 1.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water. The compact's objective is to ensure a baseline water supply for each state while maintaining certain water levels in the Colorado River and its lakes.
Human actions and outdated data have contributed to this predicament, with climate change being a significant factor. Since 2000, there has been a marked increase in La Niña years compared to El Niño years. La Niña typically results in warmer conditions and reduced precipitation in the Southwest, while El Niño brings the opposite effect.
The Colorado River and Its Lakes
With the government urging users of Colorado River water to cut back, a contentious debate has emerged regarding which states should bear the most significant burden. The Upper Basin states argue that the Lower Basin states should absorb the majority of the reductions. If the Upper Basin states maintain their current water consumption levels, it could help stabilize the water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead.
However, as Arizona, California, and Nevada continue to grow in population, one city in the Upper Basin—Denver—seeks additional water resources to support its burgeoning population. Consequently, two pipelines are being proposed to divert water to Colorado's Front Range, directly contradicting the government's guidelines for maintaining river levels.
Kevin Wheeler, an engineer from Oxford University, notes: "They would definitely have to remain in place either until we know the drought has definitely ended and the reservoirs have recovered, or even greater shortages are required because of increasing aridification."
When constructed, Glen Canyon Dam created Lake Powell, intended as a reserve for Lake Mead, which could send excess water downstream to Lake Mead during wet years. Now, however, Lake Powell lacks the surplus water it is supposed to provide in the upcoming year.
As snowpack levels fluctuate, so too do river levels. Although last year was not catastrophic, the parched ground absorbed much of the water before it reached rivers and streams. If this winter's snowpack falls below average, Lake Powell may dip below the dam's hydropower intakes by the end of 2023, potentially leaving five million households—including the entire Navajo Nation—without electricity. Nearby Page, Arizona, has had to install an emergency water pipeline that draws from below the current intakes, but even these tunnels are at risk of drying up.
By 2023, when the Tier 2 shortage takes effect, the seven states must devise a plan to conserve 2–4 million acre-feet of water annually, according to Camille Touton, Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. For context, Arizona's entire annual allotment from the river is 2.8 million acre-feet.
However, California, having senior water rights, will not incur cuts under Tier 2, placing the burden primarily on Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico. This discrepancy is a significant point of contention.
Without a resolution, large stretches of the Colorado River may run dry for parts of the year, raising the alarming prospect of the Grand Canyon existing without the river flowing through it—an ecological disaster that could become a reality.
"It's really hard to make predictions, especially about the future." ~Yogi Berra
Chapter 2: Nevada's Water Management Challenges
Given that Nevada had the smallest population in the original Colorado Compact, it received the least amount of river water. At that time, the population of Las Vegas was a mere 2,304, and Boulder Dam (now Hoover Dam) had yet to be constructed. The lack of air conditioning kept the West relatively unpopulated.
The Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), which oversees the Las Vegas Metro area, has implemented stringent water regulations. Among these rules, residents cannot water on Sundays or between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. During the warmer months (May through August), watering is permitted six days or fewer, decreasing to three days or fewer in September and October.
As the most arid state in the U.S., Nevada has adapted to water shortages and does not tolerate "water wasters." The SNWA and the Las Vegas Valley Water District (LVVWD) operate a "water cop" patrol that monitors the city for violations, issuing warnings or fines as necessary.
Most indoor water usage in Las Vegas is recycled and returned to Lake Mead, allowing the city to withdraw as much water from the lake as it reintegrates. However, outdoor water cannot be recycled, necessitating the enforcement of "water cop" regulations.
Despite these measures, concerns persist regarding Nevada's rapidly growing population and its water consumption. For instance, Clark County's current population stands at 2,376,683 and is projected to reach 3.38 million by 2060. In a shorter time frame, suburban North Las Vegas, with a current population of 432,588, is expected to grow to nearly 570,000 by 2030.
I will conclude this section before delving into Arizona and California, where the most intense water conflicts are likely to unfold. We will explore this further later this month.
Sources for the series include:
- Arizona Republic, 8/16/2022
- East Valley Tribune (Mesa), 5/15/2022
- Arizona Republic, 5/19/2022
- Arizona Republic, 5/4/2022
- Arizona Republic, 5/7/2022
- Univ. of Nevada Center for Business and Economic Research, 3/3/2022
- KTNV Las Vegas-abc 13
- KSNV Las Vegas-NBC 3
- The Guardian, 10/2/2022
- Arizona Republic, 10/3/2022
For further insights into the crisis affecting the American Southwest, consider reading more articles.
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